The Palestine statehood bid jeopardises peace

Mahmoud Abbas had no option but to demand statehood for Palestine at the UN General Assembly on September 23rd this year, following rounds of negotiations that the US has brokered for the past two decades between Israel and the occupied territories. In a calm but firm voice, he explained the recent history of Palestine as a train of missed opportunities that had failed millions of people who today continue to live in fear of occupying forces. The speech denounced Israel’s unwillingness to commit to a peace resolution and its persistent violations of international law through land confiscations in the West Bank and “assassinations, air strikes and artillery shelling” in Gaza. In contrast, he praised the continuous efforts and reforms that the Palestinian Authority (PA) has carried out in the West Bank in preparation for it becoming an independent state. Abbas described this struggle as “a test of our worthiness, entitlement and eligibility”.

The move comes at a time when Abbas’ position has become untenable in the West Bank, especially after Al-Jazeera published leaked documents in January detailing more than ten years of intense negotiations in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, in which Abbas’ envoys offered massive land concessions in a desperate plea for peace that Israel persistently ignored. ‘The Palestine Papers’ also revealed the incapacity of the PA to deal with rival faction Hamas, which has been in control of the Gaza strip since 2007. Faced with growing criticism at home and in view of the prospective geopolitical changes of the Arab spring, Abbas needed to reaffirm his position and put Palestine at the forefront of discussions. However, the statehood bid could easily end in a diplomatic cul-de-sac that will give way to more violence in the region.

A successful bid is unlikely, as the PLO (Palestine Liberation Organisation) needs at least 9 votes from the 15 members of the Security Council. Even if Palestine gets the necessary majority, it would still have to ensure that none of the members veto the action. The latter is almost certain to happen, as the US has already promised to do so. In an address to the Assembly, President Obama expressed his frustration following multiple attempts by American envoys to bridge a deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians and warned that “peace will not come through statements and resolutions at the United Nations”. He urged the two sides to start a new round of negotiations in the spirit of compromise.

In order to prevent a diplomatic crisis, the Security Council has decided to pass the issue, at least for the time being, to a special committee that will consider the application for statehood and decide if the bid stands ground for vote. If the committee finds the bid to be unjustified, Abbas can still submit a resolution to the General Assembly for “non-member observer state”. The resolution would only require a majority in the assembly, which the PLO could easily obtain from the 126 members that have already recognised the State of Palestine.

This status would continue to exclude Palestine from any decision-making in the UN, but it would increase its chance of adhering to the International Criminal Court, where as a member, it could start prosecution of Israel for war crimes in Gaza. Opening an investigation under the ICC requires at least one of the parties involved to be a signatory of the Rome Stature, which neither Palestine nor Israel is at the moment. Although the PLO has officially recognised the Rome Stature, it cannot begin prosecution of Israel until Palestine becomes an independent sovereign state or until an ICC judge decides there is enough evidence of human rights violations for them to proceed with an investigation on their own account.

The only other body that could recommend prosecution at the ICC is the UN – a channel that the PLO exhausted in October 2009 when it asked the Council to delay the vote on a resolution that upheld the Goldstone Report. Commissioned by the UN, the Goldstone Report investigated allegations of human rights violations perpetrated by the Israeli army in Gaza, but doubts fuelled by the US and Israel, prompted Abbas to reconsider his support. The Palestine Papers obtained by Al-Jazeera revealed that Saeb Erekat conducted negotiations for Palestine at the time of the Goldstone Report vote, under the presumption that the US was attempting “an agreement on a package with Israel, and including other parties” and as a result, he feared that any progress would be hindered by the disclosures. Peace talks however proved to be inconclusive, as the two sides failed to find a mutually acceptable solution to the territorial dispute.

In recent years, establishing the borders of an Independent Palestinian State has been made increasingly difficult by the on-going construction of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has refused any measures that call for the settlers to move, while Abbas sees it as a “fait accompli on the ground” and a violation of international law, since Israel is reneging on the 1993 Oslo Accords to put a freeze on settlement building. In addition, the fate of refugees from the 1948 expulsion of Palestinian citizens from Israel remains contentious, with an estimated 5 million still living in the surrounding countries.  It is a subject on which Abbas and Netanyahu have remained reserved, despite the vociferous demands of millions of displaced people and their descendants still living in refugee camps in Lebanon and Jordan.

The controversy as ever, rests in Jerusalem. With Abbas demanding in the assembly  “the realisation of inalienable national rights in [the] independent State of Palestine, with East Jerusalem as its capital”, a two-state solution seems impossible. Israel is likewise unwilling to negotiate their stake on the city. With settlers occupying more Palestinian land every day and religious disputes nurturing radical thought on both sides, Jerusalem will most likely hinder any future agreements.

Despite general support from Palestinians for Abbas’ valiant attempt, Hamas – which currently controls the embattled Gaza strip – has been critical of the statehood bid and refused the two-state solution because it would imply recognising Israel as the “Jewish state” that Netanyahu pleaded for. In recent years, Hamas has become a nuisance for the PA that controls the West Bank, with tensions between the two factions running high since the failure of Camp David and the second intifada. For an Independent Palestinian State truly to function, Hamas and the PA would need to reach an agreement to end secularist frictions, and for Israel to re-open negotiations. The pending bid, regardless of whether it is successful or not, will most likely close any such paths for cooperation.

Image courtesy of liveworldnews.net